Gluten free product demand is tied to a country's wealth - comparisons: America, Australia, Asia, Europe,

The GFP Matrix was developed to understand what differences there were in Gluten Markets around the world. 

This article discusses what people are searching for in the gluten realm including the preference for specific food types which is often dependant on the Tier type and the economic wealth of their community.

In this article this research shows:

• The definition of Tier 1 (very low) and Tier 3 (very high) gluten markets
• Outliers to the standard trend called hyper and hypo markets
• A linear relationship is shown between raw searches and Adjusted Coeliac Searches
• A logarithmic relation is shown between a country's adjusted searches and the wealth of the country (GDP per person).

This research draws together all previous GFP Matrix research and articles on this website and is based on analysis of Google search results for gluten products made in December 2008. The analysis compares communities in the Americas, Europe and Asia. Communities are defined as specific language segments within a country. Most countries have the bulk of their gluten free market defined by their incumbent language searches and English language searches. 

To assist analysis, gluten related search terms were divided into seven groups as shown below. Only the top 50 search terms were used for detailed statistical analysis, but in most cases, these fifty terms represent 95% of all volumes.

Gluten Group Composition:

• Generic GF Product: This group of search terms all involve the word gluten and are generic in nature, such a gluten, gluten free, gluten free products, gluten free meals.
• Gluten Diet: These are terms that are related to the specifics of gluten free diets such as: gluten free diets, celiac diet.
• Gluten Free recipe: Terms such as gluten free recipes, gluten recipe, gluten free baking, wheat free baking
• Celiac related: These are terms related to information on the disease such as: celiac, celiac disease, gluten intolerance, gluten allergies
• Wheat free: Terms such as: wheat free, wheat gluten, wheat allergy
• GF Locations: gluten free stores, gluten free shopping, gluten free restaurant
• Specific GF Foods: gluten free bread, gluten free pizza, gluten free cakes, gluten free muffins

The graph below shows the similarity of the proportions of gf food group searches for the various market TIERS. For example, note how similar the proportions of the groups (colours) are for TIER 1 countries: Australia, US and Canada.

Another main concept in this research was the development of a term called ‘Adjusted Celiac searches'. This value is based on raw gluten search term volumes and ‘adjusted' (increased) to account for the level of internet usage in a country as well as the probable total search engine gluten queries (using specific country Google Market share as the basis). This adjusted value thus estimates the total gluten searches as if 100% of a country had internet access and all search engine results were used. This intermediate value is then divided by 100 to gain a monthly ‘adjusted celiac search' value. This assumes that the average celiac rate is approximately 1 in 100 people (diagnosed and undiagnosed). This hypothetical value thus estimates the average number of times that a celiac searched for gluten free products in a community per month - assuming that all coeliacs search. Note that the main difference in English spelling in all countries is whether they use coeliac (UK derived) or celiac (USA).

While it was found that a communities number of raw searches per population can act as a rough guide to its level of development, however there are several exceptions. These hypo and hyper markets are discussed later. It was also found that for very low (Tier 3) and high raw searches positions (Tier 1), a pattern emerged in how the search groups are proportioned. See below:

TIER 1 characteristics

 Gluten Group Proportions

 The primary classification of this group is high raw search results (searches / population) for gluten free products. The group comprises: Australia (0.0218), US (0.0123); Canada English (0.0175); UK (0.0135); Singapore English (0.02730). Singapore's standout result is party due to the countries very high economic success (GDP per person) and its very high usage of telecommunications (see Asia GFP Matrix article). 

At the high ‘raw search' end of the spectrum, (AND high adjusted coeliac searches) it was found that there are a high proportion of ‘generic gluten searches' compared to other groups. It was also found that the majority of these searches were for CORE generic terms such as: gluten, gluten free, gluten free food, gluten free products etc.

Of the generic searches, usually two terms comprise 90% or more of the total group's searches. There are also usually more than ten generic terms in the top 50 search terms. While several tier 3 communities also have the top two terms being a high proportion of the group, the group usually comprises five or less terms.

The second highest group is usually the coeliac group. Like the generic group these terms are often CORE terms such as: coeliac / celiac, coeliac disease, gluten intolerance etc.

The 'specific food' group on average has a low proportion of seven percent of the top 50 searches.

It is speculated that the reason for the top two groups comprise 70% to 80% of top 50 searches are that in the generic group, these communities have a high internet penetration and have high economic wealth. This leads to high diagnosis and high demand which leads to a high supply of gluten websites. The gluten specific websites act like gluten malls with internal search functions that people use to find the gluten info they are after. Whereas in less developed countries these large sites may not exist and people have learned that they have to use unique and three or four word search terms to find what they want right from the search engine stage.

The high proportion of 'celiac' group searches are most likely by newly diagnosed people and older diagnosed attempting to find if new medical breakthroughs have occurred in the disease. Again CORE terms usually dominate this group because there are enough large all encompassing coeliac devoted sites that provide the answers people are seeking.

 TIER 3

 Gluten Group Proportions

The primary classification of this group is very low raw search results per population. The group comprise communities such as: US Spanish (0.0011); Mexico Spanish (0.0004); Brazil Portuguese (0.006); China Simplified (0.009); India Hindi ( (0.0004); Indonesia Indo ( 0.0008).

TIER 2

These communities are developing gluten free markets. Their raw searches lie somewhere between tier 1 and tier 3 communities. In graph plots of raw or adjusted coeliac searches versus GDP or other similar metrics these communities form the bridge between tier 1 and tier 3 communities.

While some tier 2 or tier 3 communities may have high generic searches, often a high proportion of these are for non-core terms such as: gluten free breakfast, gluten free snacks, gf desserts, gf gifts. etc

Hypo markets

These are markets that exist in highly developed countries (like tier 1 communities) have very low raw gluten searches (like tier 3 communities) and very high proportions of generic gluten searches (like tier 1) markets. The lie outside of the standard graph line.

Three classic examples of hypo market communities are the incumbent language searches in: Germany, France & Spain.

Hypo gluten free Market Search Volumes & Gluten Group Proportions

From the table it can be seen that the average raw search value is 0.0016, the average % of Core generic terms is 81% (much higher than the average tier 1 communities) and specific foods is 6% - very close to Tier 1.

Typically the specific foods searched for are similar to tier 1 communities. For example the top three foods searched for by French speaking people in France were: Flour, oatmeal and rye flour.

Assuming that European communities have a typical proportion of 'celiacs' per population, the low raw searches is an anomaly. These communities have a high internet penetration and relatively high Google market share so the low share is likely to be caused by low diagnosis within the communities. These areas still have a relatively high level of wheat and gluten consumption via breads and pastas so either there is something else in their diet keeping coeliac disease at bay, or they find their gluten products some other way.

Hyper Markets

These are ‘over performing' markets.

On raw searches per population they appear like tier 3 communities, that is they have very low gluten free search volumes, however when adjusted for Internet penetration and Google share, they have over performing high values for ‘celiac searches' per month.

Typically, unlike hypo markets, they are developing communities with relatively low GDP per person values. Prime examples of hyper markets are Russia English Speaking, China Traditional and Indonesia English speaking.

The average raw search values are low size at 0.0035 but these convert to a very high coeliac search value of 5.4. This means that these large population countries have relatively low searches, also have low internet penetration. When values are adjusted for internet penetration and Google market share they have some of the highest ‘per coeliac’ searches of any communities.