Gluten Free trends in Canada
The following analysis uses Google data sets. Previous original analysis by GFP showed that Canada had one of the highest online ‘searches per celiac per month’ of any country at 3.3. This was only slightly behind Australia at 4.2 and ahead of the US at 2.7 for 2008. This update report looks at how Canada’s online gluten free market has performed exceptionally well over the last year and how the type of gluten free search terms have changed.
Google values for Dec 2009 showed the following changes in the seven groups:
Canada Gluten Free Nov 2009 Search Volumes
| Metric |
GF generic |
Gluten diet |
GF recipe |
Celiac |
Wheat free |
Locations |
Specific foods |
Total |
| % of terms |
16 |
8 |
20 |
14 |
10 |
4 |
28 |
100 |
| TOTAL |
534,000 |
34,800 |
96,800 |
154,700 |
39,400 |
7,300 |
84,000 |
951,000 |
| MAX |
301,000 |
12,100 |
27,100 |
90,500 |
18,100 |
4,400 |
14,800 |
468,000 |
| MEDIAN |
6,600 |
9,900 |
3,650 |
5,400 |
4,400 |
3,650 |
4,900 |
38,500 |
| % top 50 searches |
56 |
4 |
10 |
16 |
4 |
1 |
9 |
100% |
Canada Gluten Free Nov 2008 Search Volumes
| Metric |
GF generic |
Gluten diet |
GF recipe |
Celiac |
Wheat free |
Locations |
Specific foods |
Total |
| % of terms |
20 |
6 |
22 |
12 |
8 |
6 |
26 |
100 |
| TOTAL |
291,760 |
12,100 |
42,340 |
97,300 |
19,780 |
3,780 |
36,280 |
503,340 |
| MAX |
165,000 |
5,400 |
12,100 |
60,500 |
12,100 |
1,600 |
8,100 |
256,700 |
| MEDIAN |
2400 |
5,400 |
1,600 |
3,000 |
3,400 |
1,300 |
2,400 |
17,100 |
| % top 50 searches |
58 |
2 |
8 |
19 |
4 |
1 |
7 |
100% |
Gluten Free Canada Demand CATEGORIES
It can be seen that of the top 50 gluten free associated terms on Google in Canada, that Canadian (English searches) have increased between Nov 08 (467,060) to Nov 09 (951,000) – an astounding 103 percent!
When the top 50 monthly searches are segmented into seven subcategories (see graph below), it can be seen that each of the categories received a similar increase (their proportions remain similar for 2008 and 2009). The main category (generic gluten free terms), changed from 10 terms (201,760 searches) accounting for 58% of top 50 searches to 8 terms (534,000 searches) accounting for 56% of the top 50. This is an increase in volume of 83% for this category alone, yet the group proportion decreased by 2%.
The second highest category (celiac searches) increased from six terms (97,300) to seven terms (154,700 – a 59% increase) but the group proportion fell 3%. The two largest group volume increases were from gluten diet (12,100 to 34,800 – up 188%) and GF specific foods (36,280 to 84,000 – up 132%).
Similar to the UK search term trends for specific gf foods, the major searches were for Gluten free bread (29,600) then flour (13,500). In 2009 the secondary terms of interest were: cakes (5,400), diary free (8,300), cookies (6,600) and chocolate (4,400).
Just as important to the level of maturity in the market, is the change in proportion of the seven groups. Previous GFP research showed that the highest ‘celiac search’ developed countries showed a distinct pattern in the proportion of these groups. That is that the generic gluten free group was always around 60% of the top 50 searches followed by the celiac group at around 20%.
Along with the large jump in total searches for the year, the proportion of these groups shares have changed significantly. For instance, in America while its generic group stayed at 64%, its celiac group decreased from 20% to 8%, with a slight increase in the ‘gluten free recipe’ search volume proportion. As can be seen above, for Canada, the generic ‘gluten free’ group decreased from 58% to 56%, and the celiac group dropped from 19% to 16%.
A previous article comparing various leading gluten free search countries showed that the last five year trend for celiac related searches has been relatively flat compared to a strong rise in gluten free associated searches. This is in line with the changes to the top 50 group proportions.
LONG TERM Gluten Free Canada TREND
The trend for ‘gluten free’ (single term) searches is shown above. It shows steady seasonal growth and very similar patterns for 2005 to 2008, however 2009 shows a stand out increase. Over the years the Jan to Dec increases have been yr 2005 (33%), 2006 (42%), 2007 (60%), 2008 (55%) AND in 2009 an outstanding 98!
CONCLUSION
Each of the last five years Canada has experienced a notable increase in December gluten free online demand and a particularly a very strong increase in search volumes in 2009 (34% between November and December). It would appear that ‘Christmas shopping’ for Canadians buying gluten free products for friends an family really took off in 2009.
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